Recently, more than 60 cities across the country have introduced policies to stabilize the property market, market expectations have gradually improved, the margin of home appliance sales has improved, and the peak sales season in April has arrived, and the prosperity of the home appliance sector has rebounded. In addition, under the background of stable growth, steel, coal, etc. in the upstream resource products sector maintained a high degree of prosperity this week; the prosperity of midstream construction machinery and other prosperity showed marginal improvement. It is recommended to pay attention to the white, black and kitchen appliances sectors with high correlation with real estate, the small household appliances sector driven by the "home economy", and the upstream construction machinery field with high prosperity upstream resources and marginal improvement of prosperity.

Core ideas

【This week's attention】The recent marginal relaxation of real estate policies and the arrival of the peak sales season, the sales of home appliance segments have gradually improved. Judging from the single-week data of Aowei, the sales of clothes dryers and dishwashers are good, the domestic sales of air conditioners are improving, and the external demand is stable; at the same time, with reference to the situation in 2020, the "home economy" is expected to further enhance the demand for small household appliances. The easing of real estate policies in many places across the country has been frequent, and the market expectations have gradually improved, and the superimposed April has entered the peak sales season, and the plate prosperity is expected to gradually improve. It is recommended to pay attention to the white electricity, black electricity, kitchen appliances sector with high correlation with real estate and the small household appliance sector driven by the "home economy".

【Information Technology】The price of 4GB 1600MHz DRAM memory fell week-on-week, and the prices of 32GB NAND flash memory and 64GB NAND flash memory remained unchanged.

【Midstream manufacturing】This Saturday, lithium fluorophosphate, cathode material electrolytic manganese, cobalt tetroxide prices downward, dimethyl carbonate, lithium materials and most cobalt product prices remain unchanged. This week, the comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry rose slightly, the silicon wafer price index rose slightly, and the price index of modules, cells, silicon wafers and polycrystalline silicon was flat with last week; the price of silicon materials and silicon wafers in the photovoltaic industry chain fell, and the price of modules was flat with last week. Forklift sales in February increased significantly year-on-year, loaders, rollers, and internal combustion engines turned from negative to positive year-on-year, the year-on-year decline in truck cranes narrowed, and the year-on-year decline in bulldozer sales of major enterprises expanded. This week, china's export container freight index CCFI, China's coastal bulk freight price composite index CCBFI is down; this week's Baltic dry bulk index BDI is down, and the crude oil transport index BDTI is up.

【Consumer demand】This week, the price of fresh milk fell. This week, the price of piglets and pigs rose, and the price of pork fell; the profit loss of self-breeding pig breeding narrowed, and the breeding loss of purchased piglets expanded. Broiler fry and chicken prices rose. The vegetable price index was flat with last week, with corn futures settling upwards and cotton futures settling upwards. This week' box office revenue, number of moviegoers, and number of movie releases declined.

【Resource products】The 10-day average of construction steel turnover declined month-on-month. Iron ore, billet, rebar prices rose; the inventory of major steel varieties declined, the domestic port iron ore inventory declined, Tangshan steel billet inventory went up; Tangshan steel mill blast furnace operating rate was the same as last week, Tangshan steel mill capacity utilization rate declined. The settlement price of thermal coal futures is downward, and the settlement price of coke futures and coking coal futures is upward. Coal stocks in Qinhuangdao Port and Coking Coal in Jingtang Port declined, and coke stocks in Tianjin Port rose. Glass and cement price indices declined. Brent international crude oil prices fell and inventories fell. Most of the futures prices of organic chemicals fell, the prices of PVC, asphalt, PTA, and natural rubber rose, and the prices of methanol, diethylene glycol, polypropylene, xylene, etc. fell sharply. This week, industrial metal prices rose and fell, zinc, nickel, lead prices rose; inventories rose and fell, copper stocks increased more. This week, the spot price of gold rose and the spot price of silver rose.

【Financial Real Estate】 The net investment in the money market is 420 billion yuan, and the OVERNIGHT SHIBOR interest rate is rising. The A-share turnover rate is rising, and the daily turnover is down. This week, the premium rate of land transactions has declined, and the transaction area of commercial housing has risen.

【Utilities】China's natural gas ex-factory price is rising, and the settlement price of British natural gas futures is down.

Risk Warning: Industrial support is less than expected, macroeconomic fluctuations

directory

　　01

This week's industry boom core changes are overview

1, this week's attention: home appliance sales are good, plate prosperity marginal improvement

The marginal relaxation of real estate policies and the arrival of the peak sales season, the sales of home appliance segments have gradually improved. Aowei single-week retail data, in recent weeks, the sales data of some segments of home appliances has been good, and W13 has seen online freezers, dryers and dishwashers rise by 16.66%, 20.21% and 14.09% year-on-year in a single week. In terms of cumulative data, the online sales volume of clothes dryers and floor washers increased by 64% and 65% respectively year-on-year; the online sales of integrated stoves, floor washers and dryers increased by 32.79%, 72.58% and 74.17% respectively year-on-year. In April, industry online data showed that the domestic sales of air conditioners improved, and the external demand was stable. In April 2022, the household air-conditioning industry scheduled production of about 16.82 million units, an increase of 5.4% over the same period last year; of which domestic sales increased by 14.9% over the same period last year, and exports increased by 5.3% over the same period last year.

The small household appliance sector may benefit from the closed epidemic prevention policy. Referring to the situation in 2020, the "home economy" or the demand for small household appliances brought a pull, in the first half of 2020 due to the impact of the epidemic, the implementation of home office in many places, driving the year-on-year growth rate of kitchen appliance sales is significantly higher than the historical center, 3-6 months kitchen appliance sales increased by 39.01%, 44.24%, 43.35%, 60.76% respectively. Recently, due to the impact of the epidemic, Shanghai, Shenzhen and other places have successively adopted lockdown and epidemic prevention policies, and the "home economy" is expected to further promote the improvement of sales of small kitchen appliances. However, due to logistics obstruction in some areas, some demand may lag behind.

Many places across the country have issued real estate easing policies, market expectations have gradually repaired, and with the arrival of the peak sales season in April, the plate prosperity is expected to gradually improve. According to Zhongyuan Real Estate data, more than 60 cities have introduced policies to stabilize the property market. Among them, Quzhou in Zhejiang and Qinhuangdao in Hebei Province announced the cancellation of the real estate purchase restriction policy, and Zhengzhou, Harbin, Fuzhou and other places have relaxed the restriction on purchase and sale. This week, in the past 5 trading days, the real estate sector rose by 12.42%, the home appliance sector rose by 4.49%, of which white goods rose by 5.03%, kitchen appliances rose by 4.46%, black home appliances rose by 1.80%, and small household appliances rose by 1.17%, reflecting the market's strong expectations for plate repair. At the same time, considering that April entered the peak sales season, major enterprises are stepping up production scheduling and stockpiling, and the prosperity of the plate is expected to further improve. It is recommended to pay attention to the white electricity, black electricity, kitchen appliances sector with high correlation with real estate and the small household appliance sector driven by the "home economy".

2. Overview of the core changes in the industry's prosperity

　　02

　　信息技术产业

　　1、存储器价格多数保持不变

　　4GB 1600MHz DRAM存储器价格周环比下跌，32GB NAND flash存储器、64GB NAND flash存储器价格保持不变。截至4月1日，4GB 1600MHz DRAM价格周环比下行1.61％至2.70美元；32GB NAND flash价格保持不变，维持在2.14美元；64GB NAND flash价格保持不变，维持在3.98美元。

　　03

　　中游制造业

　　1、本周六氟磷酸锂价格下降，多数钴材料和锂材料价格不变

　　本周六氟磷酸锂、正极材料电解锰、四氧化三钴价格下行，碳酸二甲酯、锂材料和多数钴产品价格保持不变。在电解液方面，截至4月6日，电解液溶剂DMC价格维持在5700元/吨；六氟磷酸锂价格周环比下降5.05％至47.00万元/吨。在正极材料方面，截至4月6日，电解镍Ni9996现货均价周环上行1.54％至223500元/吨；电解锰市场平均价格周环比下行2.66％至18300元/吨。在锂原材料方面，截至4月6日，电解液锰酸锂价格维持在7.05万元/吨；电解液磷酸铁锂价格维持在10万元/吨；氢氧化锂价格维持在491500元/吨；三元材料价格维持370.95元/千克；钴产品中，截至4月6日，电解钴价格维持在557000元/吨；四氧化三钴价格周环比下行0.34％至441.5元/千克；钴粉价格维持在648元/千克；氧化钴价格维持在420元/千克。

　　2、光伏行业综合价格指数小幅上行

　　本周光伏行业综合价格指数小幅上行，硅片价格指数小幅上行，组件、电池片、硅片、多晶硅价格指数与上周持平。截至3月28日，光伏行业综合价格指数为55.20，较3月21日上升0.02％；组件价格指数为38.79，与上周持平；电池片价格指数为28.83，与上周持平。硅片价格指数为53.84，较3月21日上升0.04％；多晶硅价格指数为154.18，与上周持平。

　　本周光伏产业链中硅料、硅片价格下行，组件价格与上周持平。在硅料方面，截至3月28日，国产多晶硅料价格为39.07美元/千克，较上周下行0.09％；进口多晶硅料价格为39.07美元/千克，较上周下行0.09％。在组件方面，截止3月23日，晶硅光伏组件的价格为0.21美元/瓦，与上周持平；薄膜光伏组件的价格为0.23美元/瓦，与上周持平。在硅片方面，截止3月23日，多晶硅片价格为0.31美元/片，较上周下行0.32％。

　　3、2月主要企业叉车销量同比增速显著提高，推土机、压路机、内燃机等销量均改善

　　2月叉车销量同比增幅大幅扩大，装载机、压路机、内燃机同比由负转正，汽车起重机同比降幅收窄，主要企业推土机销量同比降幅扩大。

　　2月主要企业推土机当月销量同比下降5.48％（前值-5.15％）；主要企业叉车销量当月同比增长71.30％，较上月增幅扩大59.60个百分点；主要企业汽车起重机销量当月同比降低39.20％，较上月降幅收窄18.50个百分点。

　　2月主要企业压路机销量当月值1204台，较上月增加58台，同比上升0.42％，增速由负转正，较2020年同期上升106％。1-2月销量累计值为2382台，累计同比下降1.49％，降幅较前值收窄4.50个百分点，较2020年同期增长60％。

　　4、CCFI、CCBFI、BDI周环比下行，BDTI周环比上行

　　本周中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI、中国沿海散货运价综合指数CCBFI下行。在国内航运方面，截至4月1日，中国出口集装箱运价综合指数CCFI周环比下行2.14％至3204.8点；中国沿海散货运价综合指数CCBFI周环比下行4.29％至1194.93点。本周波罗的海干散货指数BDI下行，原油运输指数BDTI上行。在国际航运方面，截至4月6日，波罗的海干散货指数BDI为2213.0点，较上周下行8.44％；原油运输指数BDTI为1469.0点，较上周上行26.31％。

　　04

　　消费需求景气观察

　　1、主产区生鲜乳价格下行

　　主产区生鲜乳价格下行。截至3月23日，主产区生鲜乳价格报4.18元/公斤，周环比下行0.24％，较去年同期下降2.11％。

2, pig prices are rising, and the vegetable price index is flat with last week

This week, piglet and hog prices rose, and pork prices fell. As of April 1, the average price of piglets in 22 provinces and cities was 24.73 yuan / kg, up 1.48% week-on-week; the average price of live pigs was 12.23 yuan / kg, up 0.91% week-on-week; the average wholesale price of pork was 18.92 yuan / kg, down 0.05% week-on-week. In terms of pig breeding profits, the loss of self-breeding pig breeding decreased this week, and the loss of purchased piglet breeding increased. As of April 1, the profit of self-breeding pig breeding was -531.05 yuan / head, up 18.16 yuan / head from last week; the profit of purchased piglet breeding was -292.39 yuan / head, down 5.36 yuan / head from last week.

In terms of broiler breeding, the price of broiler fry is up, and the price of chicken is up. As of April 1, the average price of broiler fry in the main producing areas was 1.48 yuan / feather, up 68.18% week-on-week; as of April 2, the average retail price of chicken in 36 cities was 12.73 yuan / 500 grams, up 0.32% week-on-week.

The vegetable price index was flat with last week, with cotton futures settling upwards and corn futures settling upwards. As of April 5, China's Shouguang Vegetable Price Index was 196.29, unchanged from last week; as of April 5, cotton futures settled at 137.53 cents/lb, up 0.53% week-on-week; corn futures settled at 759.75 cents/bushel, down 4.61% week-on-week.

3. The box office revenue of the film is declining

This week' box office revenue, number of moviegoers, and number of movie releases declined. As of April 3, this week's film box office revenue was 128 million yuan, down 23.4% week-on-week; the number of moviegoers was 3.57 million, down 22.22% week-on-week; and the movie was released 1.1891 million times, down 1.6% week-on-week.

　　05

High-frequency tracking of resource products